This in-depth analysis of situation in US explains why there is no deflation in US and earnings are reasonable. The main arguments are:
1. Drop in commodities prices allow Americans to buy more, causing 2% inflation seen both in consumer price index and wages
2. American economy focuses on businesses with increasingly high margins [financial, tech, services], and therefore the earning and P/E will rise
3. Current champions focus on buyback, are not very leveraged and do not show signs of weakness
While not a part of the article above, aging population in developed country can be a big long-term concern and affect the current economical supercycle.
The bear market hypothesis is also backed up by a large number of indicators, the latest of them in this article. It is going to be interesting.
We will check if the cook indicator here and here can be added to the tools.
And here is another troubling indicator.
It may take 3 years till we see a pullback, but it may take 6 or 14 see here.
To qualify for correction we need to see a 10% pullback, what we see is more like 5%. Moreover, insiders are still buying stocks. So as long as someone is printing money [EU/Japan], the global corporations will probably not crash. Will the indices test again all-times-high before dropping 10% vs the previous peak?