This post considers worlds markets performance within a long timeframe. The markets signal rotation. SENSEX is as strong as ever, but Chinese indices are under pressure and European indices are rising. S&P and Nikkei are relatively neutral. Strong volatility everywhere. Maybe volatility will subside when Greece politics and Crude price get balanced.
Short guide for absolute beginner
If you are an absolute beginner to the investment world: 1. Understand the idea of modern portfolio management 2. Read this description of assets and asset types. 3. Understand indicators –Economic indicators –Candlestick patterns –Bollinger bands 4. Open investing.com and look at indicators 5. Start reading seekingalpha.com”>blog 6. See the simplest tactics in our book. …
American market is strong?
Many economists are signalling deflationary pressure [possible growth reduction] in US. Lower guidance is coming from energy sectors. Bullish FED does not help either… This in-depth analysis of situation in US explains why there is no deflation in US and earnings are reasonable. The main arguments are: 1. Drop in commodities prices allow Americans to …
Commodities supercycle
This great article shows the current commodities supercycle. Commodities are generally moving in a very wide “channel” supported by inflation with roughly 25 years cycle. The current cycle should be modified by 2008 crisis results for better understanding. It appears that the overall commodities prices are falling right now, as explained by the supercycle theory. …
Gold status
Unlike the status of oil, which is pretty clear right now, the status of gold is more complex. Gold demand is governed by exchange rate uncertainty and monetary inflation. We see conflicting trends of uncertainty and deflation, with rapidly changing monetary policies, which causes unpredictable results. We have seen a rally fueled almost entirely by …
World-wide deflation
We are probably witnessing the biggest word-wide deflation after the big depression of 30s. This article explains how US QE excess liquidity could cause such worldwide deflation. Will be interesting to see if ECB QE and Abenomics can handle it, and how the Chinese government will regulate overproduction and speculative bubbles resulting.
Buying options vs buying etf
The USO structure shows that buying ETF not necessarily reflects option prices due to contango. There is more than one ETF per asset, but liquidity may be more important than performance in some cases. Occasionally it is useful to buy mining companies/EFT/MLP instead of buying the commodities. The mining companies typically have much higher volatility. …
How to pick stocks
This is an art we are planning to master eventually “Magic formula”
Oil inventories analysis
This article compares in depth oil inventories build-up of today and 2012.