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Is the stock market overvalued? The question always arises whenever the market falls or valuations reach historical peaks. By early 2025, U.S. share markets are showing evidence of re-establishment after an AI-driven large-cap tech rally in late 2024. Many of the stocks have undergone significant price decreases within the last few months, which has contributed …
It is common knowledge that a strong currency reflects not only the strength of a nation but also the economic confidence and increased buying capacity of the consumer. This viewpoint is mostly true in various sections of the economy, as, for example, a powerful dollar gives Americans the opportunity to purchase cheaper foreign goods, travel …
Continue reading “Why Is a Strong Dollar Considered Bad for The Stock Market?”
I would love to know how it all started. Still, we are between the world’s two biggest economies that dramatically influence local markets, consumers, political contexts, and the world. The trade war between China and the US, which saw tariffs as the first stage of the dispute, is now characterized by the playing around in …
Continue reading “Impact of the US-China Trade War on the Economy”
This institute provides a leading index on US economy based on some macro measurement. This article describes how to use the leading weekly index to anticipate US economy movement.
Volatility futures are typically in contango (S&P bull market) with some backwardation periods (S&P bear market). There is a reason to trade long volatility on market peaks when (a) there is no QE in US and (b) when the contango is relatively flat, and inverse volatility on market corrections otherwize. Flat volatility contango is also …
www.gurufocus.com offers a number of cool free features for those not willing to part with 400USD per year: 1. Guru trends industry 2. Guru scoreboard with easy access to individual portfolios by name. Unfortunately all data is delayed. 3. Concensus picks of many gurus 4. Insider trading is really updated, including trends 5. Rebalanced A, …
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This page holds several international indicators. Very good to see gold reserves, debt to gdp, growth rate etc. This page holds similar data.
This page includes simple market health indicators for US, India, Japan, REIT, MLP. Should be checked once per month when rebalancing momentum/sector rotation/equity-bonds allocations. For example, the price-to-book indicator is very interesting – since it is a proxy for the liquidation stock price. Investor fears are abundant, should be acknowledged but not overused.
Charting and trend analysis is very similar to astrology. There are woo many signals to decide anything. This blog offers a reasonable ~daily market analysis that supplements our fundamental understandings and offers new insight. The charts often give wrong signals, so be careful when charting.