Usually Dow and Russel are highly correlated, but for the last year this is not so. This article shows some reason for it. We have made the argument here before that, in addition to being fairly valued by pretty much any historical metric, U.S. large-cap stocks face significant headwinds courtesy of the strong dollar. We …
30-Y bond prices
The 30 years T bond prices have been very good in 2014. In fact this article notices triple top structure in bond pattern. This means that TLT and EDV ETFs have become dangerous…
De-dollarization in Russia
New data shows that massive spike in gold prices was caused by Russia buying more gold than ever as explained here and visible here
Systemic risk report
We got unusually detailed high systemic risk report. It appears as the US market has become overly complacent. While market corrections occur every 3 years on average, we may be heading into a dangerous territory in US. Due to high systemic risk, larger than usual diversification may be advised, with higher than usual cache allocation …
Pressure and expectations for 22-Jan
Ideas: 1. Regulator policy is very hard to predict and it may well send the markets into months of turmoil 2. Fear indicators are building up: volatility, dollar, gold, silver – they are all very high 3. With US QE over and European/Japanese easing the US market changes its orientation. 4. Strong dollar keeps carry …
More 2015 predictions
2015 predictions geopolitical
Weekly market analysis
Weekly markets 1. Pay more attention to bonds 2. There is market correction every ~3 years, and the last one was ~2011 (play defensive) 3. Diversify market entry points every ~5 years or use fixed monthly/annual deposits- otherwise you may find yourself out of luck. I need to revise up the market-neutral positions. 4. Do …
Natural gas and oil
The oil falling 50% poses several questions. We speculate that (brent) oil is posed to break 45$ support sometimes in Feb and stay there for 3 months before going up to 80$ in December. The supporting information is not strong enough yet to support this speculation, so we do not bring it here. What we …
S&P target value
Current highs and lows starting form a long-term trend. Current S&P trend will stop around 2350, but it will be a bumpy (volatile) ride till we get there. Here is a technical analysis.
Common sense position tactics from Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B), was in Detroit last month. The billionaire sat down with Quicken Loans Chairman and Founder Dan Gilbert, along with President and Chief Marketing Officer Jay Farner, for an hour-long chat. When asked about the philosophy that brought him an estimated net worth of about …
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