The best way to pick stocks is using screener of undervalued stocks. Unfortunately, screener access costs around 400USD per year. We will try to recreate the tools for free. This article describes a decent method for choosing large cap stocks, and here mid cap are addressed. And these stocks are probably too risky right now. …
Investment tactics – overview
We believe in statistical analysis and modern portfolio management. Rather then placing few well-picked bets, we distribute our bets to improve returns and reduce drawdown and risk of ruin. Our investment tactics is focused on monthly rebalancing core account. Within the core account, fixed allocation per asset class (adjusted based on rare macro events). The …
National economies
This page holds several international indicators. Very good to see gold reserves, debt to gdp, growth rate etc. This page holds similar data.
De-dollarization in Russia
New data shows that massive spike in gold prices was caused by Russia buying more gold than ever as explained here and visible here
Market health simple indicators
This page includes simple market health indicators for US, India, Japan, REIT, MLP. Should be checked once per month when rebalancing momentum/sector rotation/equity-bonds allocations. For example, the price-to-book indicator is very interesting – since it is a proxy for the liquidation stock price. Investor fears are abundant, should be acknowledged but not overused.
Using sector rotation model
Most indexes are biased to the large-cap assets. Each month some assets perform better than others. Sector rotation model assumes that from every index we invest say 60%-80% into leading industries and 20%-40% into lagging industry, where within each sector we weight the assets equally [independent of cap]. The rebalancing can probably be performed each …
Benefit of monthly rebalancing
This article recommends monthly asset reallocation with 10-20 weeks lookback. The methods was used for relatively slow indices during profoundly bull market. Probably the allocation frequency depends on market volatility, but should happen at least once a month for most markets. Moreover, the same author mentions that it is best to reallocate at the end …
Never user market orders
This article explains why market orders are bad when low liquidity asset or large order.
Systemic risk report
We got unusually detailed high systemic risk report. It appears as the US market has become overly complacent. While market corrections occur every 3 years on average, we may be heading into a dangerous territory in US. Due to high systemic risk, larger than usual diversification may be advised, with higher than usual cache allocation …
Trend analysis
Charting and trend analysis is very similar to astrology. There are woo many signals to decide anything. This blog offers a reasonable ~daily market analysis that supplements our fundamental understandings and offers new insight. The charts often give wrong signals, so be careful when charting.