Here is a new weekly outlook. Market looks good, although another sector rotation is taking place. Everybody is looking for bottom in oil prices, but the plunge in ring count did not start to level up yet. Natural gas probably bottomed and will go up. Bonds are suddenly looking dangerous as economy starts to look …
Weekly outlook
The volatility is high. We are constantly bombarded by contradicting news. Both bulls and bears are extremely active. This week outlook is mildly positive. Assets to watch: VNQ and TLT are nearing inflection points. Oil probably DCBed ahead of inflection.
Defensive sectors lowering guidance
Quite counter-intuitively, this quarter the largest “space to improve” in terms of
Dow vs Russel divergence
Usually Dow and Russel are highly correlated, but for the last year this is not so. This article shows some reason for it. We have made the argument here before that, in addition to being fairly valued by pretty much any historical metric, U.S. large-cap stocks face significant headwinds courtesy of the strong dollar. We …
30-Y bond prices
The 30 years T bond prices have been very good in 2014. In fact this article notices triple top structure in bond pattern. This means that TLT and EDV ETFs have become dangerous…
De-dollarization in Russia
New data shows that massive spike in gold prices was caused by Russia buying more gold than ever as explained here and visible here
Systemic risk report
We got unusually detailed high systemic risk report. It appears as the US market has become overly complacent. While market corrections occur every 3 years on average, we may be heading into a dangerous territory in US. Due to high systemic risk, larger than usual diversification may be advised, with higher than usual cache allocation …
Pressure and expectations for 22-Jan
Ideas: 1. Regulator policy is very hard to predict and it may well send the markets into months of turmoil 2. Fear indicators are building up: volatility, dollar, gold, silver – they are all very high 3. With US QE over and European/Japanese easing the US market changes its orientation. 4. Strong dollar keeps carry …
More 2015 predictions
2015 predictions geopolitical
Weekly market analysis
Weekly markets 1. Pay more attention to bonds 2. There is market correction every ~3 years, and the last one was ~2011 (play defensive) 3. Diversify market entry points every ~5 years or use fixed monthly/annual deposits- otherwise you may find yourself out of luck. I need to revise up the market-neutral positions. 4. Do …