Unlike the status of oil, which is pretty clear right now, the status of gold is more complex. Gold demand is governed by exchange rate uncertainty and monetary inflation. We see conflicting trends of uncertainty and deflation, with rapidly changing monetary policies, which causes unpredictable results. We have seen a rally fueled almost entirely by …
World-wide deflation
We are probably witnessing the biggest word-wide deflation after the big depression of 30s. This article explains how US QE excess liquidity could cause such worldwide deflation. Will be interesting to see if ECB QE and Abenomics can handle it, and how the Chinese government will regulate overproduction and speculative bubbles resulting.
Integrated libraries
We are starting to integrate tools into the backend. table editor pecl trader extension pchart
Buying options vs buying etf
The USO structure shows that buying ETF not necessarily reflects option prices due to contango. There is more than one ETF per asset, but liquidity may be more important than performance in some cases. Occasionally it is useful to buy mining companies/EFT/MLP instead of buying the commodities. The mining companies typically have much higher volatility. …
Fighting drawdown via aggressive timing
Our main portfolio should be by default diversified and low volatility, basically buy-and-hold type. However we may get long drawdown periods in the main portfolio. To fight the drawdown we use further diversification into yet more markets and cache assets. However all assets are correlated to some extent. To fight this correlation we can use …
Pressure and expectations for 22-Jan
Ideas: 1. Regulator policy is very hard to predict and it may well send the markets into months of turmoil 2. Fear indicators are building up: volatility, dollar, gold, silver – they are all very high 3. With US QE over and European/Japanese easing the US market changes its orientation. 4. Strong dollar keeps carry …
More 2015 predictions
2015 predictions geopolitical
How to pick stocks
This is an art we are planning to master eventually “Magic formula”
Oil inventories analysis
This article compares in depth oil inventories build-up of today and 2012.
How to pick REIT
There are many real estate sectors with varying sensitivities. Picking individual REIT is as tricky as picking a stock, or more. Here is an example of due diligence. And here is a cool list of some REITs. A different REIT combination is here… There is a mild indication of REIT issues ahead of us…