Unlike the status of oil, which is pretty clear right now, the status of gold is more complex. Gold demand is governed by exchange rate uncertainty and monetary inflation. We see conflicting trends of uncertainty and deflation, with rapidly changing monetary policies, which causes unpredictable results. We have seen a rally fueled almost entirely by …
World-wide deflation
We are probably witnessing the biggest word-wide deflation after the big depression of 30s. This article explains how US QE excess liquidity could cause such worldwide deflation. Will be interesting to see if ECB QE and Abenomics can handle it, and how the Chinese government will regulate overproduction and speculative bubbles resulting.
Buying options vs buying etf
The USO structure shows that buying ETF not necessarily reflects option prices due to contango. There is more than one ETF per asset, but liquidity may be more important than performance in some cases. Occasionally it is useful to buy mining companies/EFT/MLP instead of buying the commodities. The mining companies typically have much higher volatility. …
How to pick stocks
This is an art we are planning to master eventually “Magic formula”
Oil inventories analysis
This article compares in depth oil inventories build-up of today and 2012.
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Low oil price side-effects
1. Transportation companies are at all times high 2. Goldman’s emerging market picks: Taiwan, Turkey, India as they benefit from low oil. India really looks good, Turkey and Taiwan a bit dangerous for various reasons 3. Russia/China cooperation gets stronger. Will add direct oil/gas sales, gold and USD swaps between countries. …. [Will add effects …